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The cookies market size is projected to increase by USD 28.36 billion at a CAGR of 6.82% between 2023 and 2028. Market demand is driven by the increasing focus on product premiumization, heightened demand for healthier cookie options over sweet biscuits, and rising sales within on-trade channels. Consumer preferences for high-quality and healthier cookies, along with opportunities in hospitality and food service, influence market growth.
The market shows an Accelerated CAGR during the forecast period.
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The offline segment will account for a significant share of market growth during the forecast period. This distribution channel refers to the distribution of cookies through physical stores, supermarkets, and other brick-and-mortar retail outlets. Offline distribution channels are characterized by the physical presence of retailers or distributors who sell cookies to customers. This method of distribution offers customers the opportunity to examine the products physically before making a purchase. Most customers prefer to purchase cookies and bakery products in offline stores because they can check the quality, color, and taste. Hence, offline stores play a vital role in the global market. Thus, the offline segment of the market is expected to witness moderate growth during the forecast period.
The market share growth by the plain and butter-based cookies segment will be significant during the forecast period. Despite the rising popularity of gluten-free bakery products, the demand for plain and butter-based cookies is high globally, especially in countries such as China, India, and the UK. Manufacturers offer position plain and butter-based cookies as entry-level market products with competitive pricing. The market is fiercely competitive, particularly in developing countries such as India and Brazil.
The plain and butter-based cookies segment was valued at USD 27.49 billion in 2018.
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Additionally, manufacturers are increasingly focusing on innovative packaging and advertising to differentiate their products. Consumer awareness about the health implications of ingredients such as artificial sugar and added colors is growing. As a result, the demand for clean labeling and health-based cookies has increased during the last few years. Manufacturers offer plain cookies made with naturally sourced ingredients, including grain-based and fruit-based sugar and whole grains. These factors will drive the growth of the segment during the forecast period.
North America is estimated to contribute 34% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period
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Technavio's analysts have provided extensive insight into the market forecasting, detailing the regional market growth and trends influencing the US cookies market's trajectory throughout the forecast period. The market in North America is diverse, with growing consumer demand for innovative products. Cookies have a large consumer base for both retail and on-trade consumption. Many manufacturers provide a range of health-based and indulgent cookies in the region. The US, Mexico, and Canada are among the key contributors to market growth in the US cookies market within North America.
Furthermore, the availability of different flavors, such as buttercream, chocolate, and peanut butter, is expected to grow in the region during the forecast period. Consumers are increasingly shifting toward healthy lifestyles. As a result, the demand for healthy and natural ingredients, such as naturally sourced sugar, nuts, whole grains, fruit, and seeds, is rising. Prominent producers are shifting their focus toward promoting clean labeling for their products. These factors will drive the growth of the regional market during the forecast period.
The market is witnessing a surge in demand driven by various factors including evolving consumer tastes, increasing consumer spending power, and a growing preference for healthy snacks. Bakers are incorporating functional ingredients and low-fat, sugar-free alternatives to cater to health-conscious consumers, leading to the rise of the market. Home bakers are also contributing to the market, offering hand-made cookies with gluten-free, organic, and low-sugar options. Urbanization and the growing popularity of e-commerce and online retailing channels further fuel market growth, enabling consumers to access a wide range of cookie varieties including chocolate cookies, pineapple flavor, and oats. However, manufacturing costs and competition from alternative products pose challenges to bakery manufacturers seeking to capitalize on evolving snacking trends and flavours.
Growing emphasis on product premiumization is the key factor driving market growth. The millennial population is growing, and disposable incomes are increasing globally. These factors have increased the demand for premium cookies. Market players such as Mondelez, Parle Products, and PepsiCo offer a diverse range of cookies that include an element of premiumization in terms of branding, packaging, and positioning. In addition, the rising awareness about the benefits of following a healthy diet around the globe has been a key factor in driving consumer willingness to pay higher prices for premium product offerings.
Moreover, manufacturers are increasingly incorporating ingredients such as dry fruits, seeds, traditional grains, and nuts to differentiate and preimmunize their cookies. For instance, Mondelez offers thin-and-crispy premium cookies, which are made of natural and high-quality ingredients, through its subsidiary Tate's Bake Shop in the US. Further, manufacturers offer a diverse range of premium products to cater to consumer demands. Therefore, the rising demand for premium products is expected to drive market growth during the forecast period.
The growing popularity of clean-labeled cookies is one of the key market trends shaping the growth. Clean labeling describes food products with ingredients that are easy to recognize. Many countries have adopted stringent regulations to ensure product formulation and labeling transparency, with the growing consumer awareness about the health impact of different ingredients. Manufacturers are ensuring that the ingredients in their products are recognized and perceived as healthy by consumers.
Further, aligned with market trends and analysis, consumer awareness about the health implications of different ingredients is increasing. Therefore, many countries are enforcing stringent regulations to ensure transparency in product formulation and labeling. Thus, manufacturers are expected to adopt clean labeling formulas for cookie production during the forecast period. These factors will support market growth during the forecast period.
The lack of organized retail distribution channels in developing markets may impede market growth. Many developing countries lack established retail distribution channels for cookies and confectionery products. This limits efficiency with respect to the overall domestic distribution of cookies in developing countries such as India, Nigeria, and Brazil. These countries have price-sensitive consumers, especially in rural areas. The distribution network of these countries is largely unstructured, and global brands face fierce competition from local companies.
Moreover, cookies are low-priced products in developing countries. Hence, they offer limited profit margins across the distribution value chain. In July 2017, The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was implemented in India and imposed to address transportation and distribution challenges that affect the pricing of products manufactured in the country. However, the inclusion of cookies in the 18% tax bracket negatively impacted established market players' retail distribution. Thus, distribution issues and low penetration in rural areas of developing countries may limit market growth during the forecast period.
Companies are implementing various strategies, such as strategic alliances, partnerships, mergers and acquisitions, geographical expansion, and product/service launches, to enhance their presence in the market forecasting growth and analysis.
The market growth and forecasting report also includes detailed analyses of the competitive landscape of the market and information about 20 market companies, including:
Arcor Group, Bahlsen GmbH and Co. KG, Billys Farm, Biscuit Holding SAS, Campbell Soup Co., Deweys Bakery Inc., Emmys Organics LLC, FUEL10K Ltd., ITC Ltd., Kellogg Co., Mondelez International Inc., Nestle SA, Parle Products Pvt. Ltd., PepsiCo Inc., PT Mayora Indah Tbk, Starbucks Corp., UNIBIC Foods India Pvt. Ltd., and Yildiz Holding A.S.
The market analysis and report of qualitative and quantitative analysis of companies has been conducted to help clients understand the wider business environment as well as the strengths and weaknesses of key market players. Data is qualitatively analyzed to categorize companies as pure play, category-focused, industry-focused, and diversified; it is quantitatively analyzed to categorize companies as dominant, leading, strong, tentative, and weak.
The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in "USD Billion" for the period 2024 to 2028, as well as historical data from 2018 to 2022 for the following segments.
The market is experiencing a significant shift towards healthier options, with demand surging for low-fat and sugar-free ingredients. Brands like The No Nasties Project and Better Cookies are leading the charge by offering alternatives like Hazelnut Flavoured Choc Chip Minis and Caramel Flavoured Minis, meeting consumer preferences for natural flavors and transparency of ingredients. As concerns over chronic diseases like obesity and diabetes rise, there's a growing market for gluten-free and vegan cookies, catering to those with glutamic disorders and lactose intolerance. However, challenges such as high input costs and supply chain disruptions necessitate innovative marketing methods and branding tactics to maintain brand loyalty and sustain growth in the market.
Furthermore, the market reflects evolving consumer preferences toward healthier alternatives and diverse flavors. Demand for low-fat ingredients and gluten-free cookies is on the rise, catering to health-conscious consumers and those with dietary restrictions like Celiac Disease. Traditional favorites like Chocolate Chip Cookies, Oatmeal Cookies, and Shortbread Cookies remain popular, alongside innovative options like Oatmeal Raisin and Snickerdoodles. Brands focus on product innovations and convenience, offering options for gifting and snacking. As concerns over health and well-being and environmental sustainability grow, there's a shift towards healthy alternatives and sustainable practices. With the expansion of online retail and foodservice, the market continues to adapt to global economic conditions and changing consumer demographics.
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Market Scope |
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Report Coverage |
Details |
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Base year |
2023 |
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Historic period |
2018-2022 |
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Forecast period |
2024-2028 |
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Growth momentum & CAGR |
Accelerate at a CAGR of 6.82% |
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Market Growth 2024-2028 |
USD 28.36 billion |
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Market structure |
Fragmented |
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YoY growth 2023-2024(%) |
5.88 |
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Regional analysis |
North America, APAC, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa |
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Performing market contribution |
North America at 34% |
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Key countries |
US, Canada, China, India, and Germany |
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Competitive landscape |
Leading Companies, Market Positioning of Companies, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks |
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Key companies profiled |
Arcor Group, Bahlsen GmbH and Co. KG, Barilla G. e R. Fratelli Spa, Billys Farm, Biscuit Holding SAS, Britannia Industries Ltd., Campbell Soup Co., Deweys Bakery Inc., Emmys Organics LLC, FUEL10K Ltd., ITC Ltd., Kellogg Co., Mondelez International Inc., Nestle SA, Parle Products Pvt. Ltd., PepsiCo Inc., PT Mayora Indah Tbk, Starbucks Corp., UNIBIC Foods India Pvt. Ltd., and Yildiz Holding A.S. |
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Market dynamics |
Parent market analysis, Market Forecasting, Cookies market growth inducers and obstacles, Fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market worth and condition analysis for the market forecast period. |
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Customization purview |
If our cookies market forecast report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized. |
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1 Executive Summary
2 Market Landscape
3 Market Sizing
4 Historic Market Size
5 Five Forces Analysis
6 Market Segmentation by Type
7 Market Segmentation by Distribution Channel
8 Customer Landscape
9 Geographic Landscape
10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends
11 Vendor Landscape
12 Vendor Analysis
13 Appendix
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