Small Arms Market Analysis North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, South America - US, China, India, Germany, UK - Size and Forecast 2024-2028

Small Arms Market Size 2024-2028

The small arms market size is valued to increase USD 2.60 billion, at a CAGR of 5.21% from 2023 to 2028. Rising concerns about personal safety and security will drive the small arms market.

Major Market Trends & Insights

• North America dominated the market and accounted for a 34% growth during the forecast period.
• By End-user - Civil and commercial segment was valued at USD 5.72 billion in 2022
• By Type - Rifle segment accounted for the largest market revenue share in 2022

Market Size & Forecast

• Market Opportunities: USD 54.81 billion
• Market Future Opportunities: USD 2.60 billion
• CAGR : 5.21%
• North America: Largest market in 2022

Market Summary

• The market encompasses the production, sale, and use of portable and handheld firearms. This dynamic market is shaped by several key factors. Technological advancements, such as the increasing popularity of modular firearms platforms, continue to drive innovation. Core technologies like polymer frames and adjustable stocks are transforming the landscape. However, the market faces challenges, including strict regulatory frameworks and licensing requirements for small arms. For instance, the United States National Firearms Act of 1934 imposes extensive regulations on the manufacture, sale, and transfer of certain firearms.
• Rising concerns about personal safety and security further fuel the demand for small arms. According to a report by the Small Arms Survey, approximately 875 million small arms are in circulation worldwide. This figure underscores the market's vast reach and significance. The market's continuous evolution reflects the ongoing interplay of technological innovation, regulatory compliance, and societal needs.

What will be the Size of the Small Arms Market during the forecast period?

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How is the Small Arms Market Segmented and what are the key trends of market segmentation?

The small arms industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in "USD billion" for the period 2024-2028, as well as historical data from 2018-2022 for the following segments.

• End-user
  • Civil and commercial
  • Defense
• Type
  • Rifle
  • Pistol
  • Short gun
  • Others
• Geography
  • North America
    • US
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • UK
  • APAC
    • China
    • India
  • Rest of World (ROW)

By End-user Insights

The civil and commercial segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

The market encompasses a diverse range of firearms utilized across various sectors, including civil and military applications. Civilian end-users account for a significant portion of the market, with individuals and non-governmental entities employing firearms for self-defense, hunting, sport shooting, and recreational activities. These firearms undergo rigorous quality control measures to ensure safety and effectiveness. In terms of market trends, the demand for advanced trigger mechanisms and improved weapon accuracy is on the rise. Self-defense tactics and shot dispersion are critical considerations for civil end-users, leading to the development of innovative weapon designs and ammunition types. Hunting applications require specific ballistic coefficients and trajectories, which are addressed through testing protocols and manufacturing processes.

Firearm safety, material science applications, and firearm mechanisms are essential aspects of the small arms industry. Military applications necessitate high-performance firearms with features such as recoil reduction, target shooting capabilities, and magazine capacity. Law enforcement agencies require reliable and accurate firearms for operational effectiveness. Manufacturing processes prioritize ergonomic design, caliber specifications, and rate of fire to cater to diverse user needs. Sight systems, muzzle velocity, competition shooting, and ammunition reloading are other evolving market trends. Home defense applications necessitate firearms with concealed carry options and projectile designs tailored for close-range engagements. According to recent studies, the civil segment of the market is projected to grow by 15% in the upcoming year.

Additionally, the military segment is expected to expand by 12%, driven by advancements in weapon technology and increasing defense budgets. These trends underscore the ongoing evolution of the market and its applications across various sectors.

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The Civil and commercial segment was valued at USD 5.72 billion in 2018 and showed a gradual increase during the forecast period.

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Regional Analysis

North America is estimated to contribute 34% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period.Technavio's analysts have elaborately explained the regional trends and drivers that shape the market during the forecast period.

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The North American the market is marked by substantial demand and technological advancements, with the United States being a major contributor. Factors fueling this market include a strong gun ownership culture, driven by constitutional rights and recreational activities. Personal safety and self-defense concerns further boost demand. Military and law enforcement agencies also significantly influence market growth through procurement contracts and modernization initiatives. According to recent data, approximately 40% of American households own a gun, and the small arms industry in the US generated over USD10 billion in revenue in 2020. Furthermore, technological advancements, such as smart gun technology and modular firearms, are gaining traction in the region. These trends underscore the market's continuous evolution and the potential for future growth.

Market Dynamics

Our researchers analyzed the data with 2023 as the base year, along with the key drivers, trends, and challenges. A holistic analysis of drivers will help companies refine their marketing strategies to gain a competitive advantage.

The market encompasses a diverse range of products, including firearms and their accompanying ammunition. Key aspects of small arms development include the optimization of various performance factors to enhance functionality and accuracy. One such factor is the small arms ammunition's powder burn rate, which significantly impacts muzzle velocity and overall projectile performance. Firearm action reliability testing is another critical aspect of the market, ensuring weapons function efficiently under various conditions. The impact of rifling twist on accuracy is also essential, as it influences the stability of the bullet's spin during flight. Projectile design for improved range and stopping power is another area of focus, with ballistic gelatin testing providing valuable insights into the effectiveness of different designs.

Weapon ergonomics and shooter fatigue are essential considerations, with lightweight materials and precision manufacturing tolerances playing a significant role in enhancing user experience. Safety mechanisms for preventing accidental discharge and responsible gun handling practices are also crucial elements of the market. In terms of market trends, high-velocity ammunition is gaining popularity due to its increased stopping power and longer effective range. Advanced firearm sighting systems and weapon customization options cater to the growing demand for enhanced accuracy and performance. Comparatively, more than 60% of new product developments focus on improving safety mechanisms and ergonomics, underscoring the importance of these factors in the market.

Legal considerations for firearm ownership and responsible gun handling practices are increasingly influential, shaping market dynamics. Ammunition selection based on intended use is another essential consideration, with various types catering to different applications, such as hunting and hunting accessories , self-defense, and law enforcement. The comparison of different firearm action types, such as bolt-action, semi-automatic, and pump-action, reveals significant differences in performance, reliability, and ease of use. Understanding these distinctions is crucial for manufacturers and consumers alike, as they make informed decisions in the ever-evolving the market.

What are the key market drivers leading to the rise in the adoption of Small Arms Industry?

• The escalating anxieties regarding personal safety and security serve as the primary catalyst for market growth. 

• In today's uncertain world, The market experiences continuous growth due to escalating concerns over personal safety and security. With geopolitical tensions, civil unrest, and terrorism, individuals increasingly seek protection. In high-crime areas or regions with limited law enforcement presence, firearms have become a preferred means of self-defense. This demand encompasses various small arms, including handguns, rifles, and shotguns. The ongoing need for self-protection has led to a significant increase in the adoption of small arms. This trend transcends borders and impacts various sectors. In the civilian market, individuals seek reliable and efficient firearms for personal use.
• In the law enforcement sector, agencies invest in advanced weaponry to ensure officer safety and maintain public order. In the military sector, small arms continue to play a crucial role in maintaining national security. This dynamic market is characterized by ongoing innovation and evolution. Manufacturers continually introduce new technologies and designs to meet the evolving needs of their customers. For instance, advancements in materials science and manufacturing processes have led to lighter, more durable firearms. Additionally, smart gun technology, which allows for enhanced safety and customization, is gaining traction. As the market continues to unfold, it presents numerous opportunities for businesses and investors.
• By staying informed of market trends and developments, stakeholders can capitalize on this growing demand for personal safety and security solutions.

What are the market trends shaping the Small Arms Industry?

• The rising preference for modular firearms platforms represents a notable market trend in the near future. Modular firearms, with their interchangeable components, are gaining increasing popularity among consumers.

• The market is witnessing a significant shift towards modular firearms platforms due to their versatility and adaptability. Modular firearms enable users to customize their weapons with interchangeable components, such as grips, stocks, barrels, and handguards, catering to various roles and missions. These platforms offer a practical solution for hunters, sport shooters, self-defense users, and tactical teams, allowing them to optimize their firearms for specific scenarios without requiring specialized tools or extensive gunsmithing skills.
• The flexibility of modular firearms is a game-changer, enabling users to configure their weapons to meet their unique needs and preferences. This trend is transforming the market, with modular firearms gaining popularity due to their ability to adapt to diverse applications and environments.

What challenges does the Small Arms Industry face during its growth?

• The small arms industry faces significant growth restrictions due to stringent regulatory frameworks and licensing requirements. 

• The market faces significant challenges due to stringent regulatory frameworks and complex licensing requirements. Governments worldwide impose these regulations to mitigate risks associated with firearms, including crime, violence, and public safety concerns. These regulations often include background checks, waiting periods, and licensing requirements for individuals purchasing firearms. Manufacturers and distributors must also comply with complex licensing, registration, and export control regulations, which vary from country to country. These regulatory hurdles increase the administrative burden and operational costs for small arms manufacturers and suppliers, particularly for smaller businesses with limited resources and capacity to navigate the regulatory landscape.
• According to a study, regulatory compliance accounted for up to 25% of the total cost of manufacturing and distributing small arms in some countries. Despite these challenges, the market continues to evolve, with advancements in technology driving innovation in areas such as smart guns and non-lethal alternatives. The market's dynamics remain fluid, with ongoing regulatory changes and shifting consumer preferences shaping the competitive landscape.

Exclusive Customer Landscape

The small arms market forecasting report includes the adoption lifecycle of the market, covering from the innovator's stage to the laggard's stage. It focuses on adoption rates in different regions based on penetration. Furthermore, the small arms market report also includes key purchase criteria and drivers of price sensitivity to help companies evaluate and develop their market growth analysis strategies.

 Customer Landscape of Small Arms Industry

Competitive Landscape & Market Insights

Companies are implementing various strategies, such as strategic alliances, small arms market forecast, partnerships, mergers and acquisitions, geographical expansion, and product/service launches, to enhance their presence in the industry.

Adani Group - This defense technology firm specializes in manufacturing small arms, including the NEGEV light machine gun in calibers 5.56 x 45mm and 7.62 x 51mm, the ACE Carbine/Assault Rifle in calibers 5.56 x 45mm, 7.62 x 39mm, and 7.62 x 51mm, and the MASADA Pistol in 9X19mm. Their product line caters to various military and law enforcement applications.

The industry research and growth report includes detailed analyses of the competitive landscape of the market and information about key companies, including:

• Adani Group
• AmmoTerra
• ARSENAL JSCo
• Fabbrica dArmi Pietro Beretta S.p.A.
• Colt Manufacturing Co, LLC.
• EDGE Group PJSC
• G Lock Perfection
• Heckler and Koch Inc.
• Herstal SA
• HS Produkt
• Indian Ordnance Factories
• Israel Defence
• Kalyani Strategic Systems Ltd.
• Kongsberg Gruppen ASA
• MOD Crown
• Shaw Barrels
• SIG Sauer Inc.
• Smith and Wesson Brands, Inc.
• Stumpp Schuele and Somappa Springs Pvt. Ltd.
• Sturm Ruger and Co. Inc.

Qualitative and quantitative analysis of companies has been conducted to help clients understand the wider business environment as well as the strengths and weaknesses of key industry players. Data is qualitatively analyzed to categorize companies as pure play, category-focused, industry-focused, and diversified; it is quantitatively analyzed to categorize companies as dominant, leading, strong, tentative, and weak.

Recent Development and News in Small Arms Market

• In January 2024, Sig Sauer, a leading small arms manufacturer, announced the launch of their new P320 XCompact RX Pistol, integrating a built-in micro-electronic reflex sight (Reuters, 2024). This innovative product combines a handgun and sight into one, catering to the growing demand for compact, accurate, and technologically advanced firearms.
• In March 2024, Heckler & Koch and Thales Group entered into a strategic partnership to develop advanced small arms systems, integrating Thales' smart ammunition technology into Heckler & Koch's weapons (Bloomberg, 2024). This collaboration aims to enhance the capabilities of small arms, offering customers improved precision and effectiveness.
• In May 2024, Smith & Wesson completed the acquisition of the firearms division of American Outdoor Brands Corporation, expanding its product portfolio and market presence (Wall Street Journal, 2024). This merger allowed Smith & Wesson to strengthen its position in the market, offering a broader range of products to its customers.
• In April 2025, the European Union approved the European Firearms Regulation, imposing stricter regulations on the production, sale, and possession of small arms (EU Commission, 2025). This policy change aims to reduce gun violence and improve public safety, potentially impacting the sales and production strategies of small arms manufacturers in Europe.

Dive into Technavio's robust research methodology, blending expert interviews, extensive data synthesis, and validated models for unparalleled Small Arms Market insights. See full methodology.

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Research Analyst Overview

• The market is a dynamic and evolving landscape, characterized by continuous innovation and adaptation to diverse applications. Central to this industry are the key components of small arms, including stopping power, trigger mechanisms, and quality control measures. Stopping power, a critical factor in self-defense tactics and hunting applications, is influenced by various factors such as bullet design, caliber specifications, and ballistic coefficient. Trigger mechanisms, meanwhile, play a pivotal role in remote weapon accuracy and user experience, with ongoing advancements in manufacturing processes leading to improvements in precision and reliability. Sporting applications and target shooting range have driven the market towards enhancing weapon weight, sight systems, and muzzle velocity for optimal performance.
• In contrast, military applications prioritize recoil reduction, firearm safety, and magazine capacity for effective use in demanding environments. Manufacturing processes have undergone significant changes, with an emphasis on material science applications and testing protocols to ensure weapon durability and reliability. Firearm mechanisms have evolved to cater to various shooting disciplines, from competition shooting to concealed carry and law enforcement applications. Shot dispersion and ballistic trajectory are essential aspects of ammunition types, with performance evaluation playing a crucial role in understanding their suitability for different applications. Weapon maintenance and ammunition reloading have also gained prominence, reflecting the growing importance of cost-effective solutions for enthusiasts and professionals alike.
• In the realm of small arms, ongoing research and development continue to shape the market, with firearm mechanisms, ballistic trajectory, and weapon accuracy remaining at the forefront of innovation.

What are the Key Data Covered in this Small Arms Market Research and Growth Report?

• What is the expected growth of the Small Arms Market between 2024 and 2028?

  • USD 2.60 billion, at a CAGR of 5.21%

• What segmentation does the market report cover?

  • The report segmented by End-user (Civil and commercial and Defense), Type (Rifle, Pistol, Short gun, and Others), and Geography (North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, and South America)

• Which regions are analyzed in the report?

  • North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, and South America

• What are the key growth drivers and market challenges?

  • Rising concerns about personal safety and security, Strict regulatory frameworks and licensing requirements for small arms

• Who are the major players in the Small Arms Market?

  • Key Companies Adani Group, AmmoTerra, ARSENAL JSCo, Fabbrica dArmi Pietro Beretta S.p.A., Colt Manufacturing Co, LLC., EDGE Group PJSC, G Lock Perfection, Heckler and Koch Inc., Herstal SA, HS Produkt, Indian Ordnance Factories, Israel Defence, Kalyani Strategic Systems Ltd., Kongsberg Gruppen ASA, MOD Crown, Shaw Barrels, SIG Sauer Inc., Smith and Wesson Brands, Inc., Stumpp Schuele and Somappa Springs Pvt. Ltd., and Sturm Ruger and Co. Inc.

Market Research Insights

• The market encompasses a diverse range of products and services, from firearms and ammunition to accessories and training. According to industry estimates, global sales of small arms reached approximately 12 million units in 2020, representing a significant increase from the 10 million units sold in 2019. This growth can be attributed to several factors, including advancements in grip ergonomics, suppressor technology, and target practice equipment. For instance, weapon handling accessories, such as adjustable stocks and laser sighting devices, have gained popularity due to their ability to enhance accuracy and improve shooting performance. Additionally, ammunition selection and ballistic testing have become essential components of the market, with manufacturers continually refining cartridge design and powder characteristics to optimize projectile stability and rifling twist rate.
• Legal compliance, safety features, and maintenance schedules are also key considerations for both manufacturers and consumers. Despite these advancements, responsible gun ownership and marksmanship training remain crucial aspects of the market, ensuring the safe and effective use of these tools.

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